Rep. Jason Chaffetz’s shocking announcement that he’s not running in 2018 does two things.
First, it opens the floodgates on the GOP side for those looking to replace him. The lead up to 2018 is going to seem like the Oklahoma land rush with the number of Republicans angling to replace him. Open seats in Utah politics don’t come around too often, especially on the Republican side.
The second thing it does is kneecaps Democrat Kathryn Allen’s candidacy. His decision will kill her fundraising machine. Her entire message up to this point was “I’m not Jason Chaffetz.” Now that he’s gone, she will have to fight for attention on her own merits. She has to retool her message entirely, and fast. Chaffetz is the reason she was getting traction in the first place.
It’s going to be very tough going for Allen. Her national attention and fundraising were mostly the result of Chaffetz’s political gaffes. It’s easier to oppose someone than trying to lead out on your own merits. Ask Republicans in Congress how they’re faring now that they’re in charge and not just opposing President Obama.
All of the media attention will shift to the GOP race to be Chaffetz’s successor. Instead of being the subject of fawning feature stories, Allen will become a footnote in every single article about the Republican race to take over Chaffetz’s seat, being mentioned as a Democrat who is also running.
Remember the last time we had an open Congressional seat? In 2012, Democrat Jim Matheson announced he would abandon the 2nd Congressional District to run in the newly-created 4th.
That year, there were 11 Republicans vying for the nomination, which was won by Chris Stewart. 3 Democrats also ran for the seat, with Jay Seegmiller ending up with the nomination. But the lion’s share of media attention was focused on the GOP race that year.
The same thing will happen in 2018.
Think about it. What’s more interesting to the average media consumer? Hearing about the machinations on the GOP side, or a Democrat who has virtually no chance of winning?
Chaffetz’s replacement is going to be a Republican. Utah’s 3rd District is the 16th most Republican in the nation according to the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index. They rate the district as R+25, meaning it is 25 points more Republican than the national average.
The 2018 race just shifted, and Kathryn Allen went from interesting to an afterthought in a heartbeat.
