Utah Valley University President Matt Holland is the most popular of the potential replacements for Rep. Jason Chaffetz if he steps down from his seat according to a new poll.
Y2 Analytics tested the favorability of potential replacements for Chaffetz and found Holland, Provo Mayor John Curtis and Utah County Commissioner Nathan Ivie with the highest rating among likely Republican primary voters.
According to the poll, other potential candidates did not do so well. Rep. Mike McKell, House Speaker Greg Hughes, and former GOP Chair Thomas Wright all trailed behind the top three. Others who scored near the bottom were Chia-Chi Teng, who lost the 2016 3rd District nomination to Chaffetz and State Sens. Deidre Henderson and Curt Bramble.
Former independent candidate Evan McMullin and already declared 3rd District candidate Damian Kidd were at the bottom of the list. The poll found McMullin was the candidate that prompted the most extreme answers from respondents.
If Chaffetz does step down before his term ends, Gov. Gary Herbert will have to call a special election to replace him. Right now, state law says Herbert will also decide how that election is conducted. If Herbert allows state delegates only to select the nominees who go on the ballot, it’s highly unlikely that Curtis or McMullin would make it to the ballot. McMullin ran for president as an independent while Curtis once ran for the Utah State Legislature as a Democrat.
Scott Riding, Managing Partner for Y2, says McMullin could have a tough time getting some traction in the race.
Not surprisingly, McMullin has the highest name recognition among the potential candidates to replace Chaffetz, while the members of the legislature have relatively low name ID at this stage of the game.
Pollsters also tested some hypothetical ballot matchups:
– In a race featuring Holland, McMullin, Henderson, Hughes and Wright, Holland was leading with 38%.
– In a head-to-head with McMullin, Henderson, Wright and Curtis, McMullin was in the lead with 33%.
The poll was conducted April 22-27 among 445 likely GOP primary voters in Utah’s 3rd Congressional District. It has a margin of error +/- 4.6%
