Utah Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, for being second fiddle to GOP Gov. Gary Herbert, is looking pretty good among Utahns – 18 months out from an election year aimed at replacing his retiring boss, a new UtahPolicy.com poll shows.
Cox is slightly ahead of another Republican statewide office-holder, Attorney General Sean Reyes.
And a third statewide Republican, state Auditor John Dougall is – well – “unknown” would be the best way to describe it, finds the online political newsletter’s pollster Dan Jones & Associates.
Yes, we are still several months away from the 2018 elections.
But these days running for governor is a marathon, not a sprint.
And Republicans – for almost certainly the final winner will be the GOP nominee – serious about becoming Utah’s next chief executive will need to start planning, and maybe fundraising, in early 2019.
It will almost certainly be a crowded GOP field – these open races don’t come around often.
Former GOP Gov. Mike Leavitt was elected three times, Jon Huntsman twice, and Herbert has faced voters three times, as well.
Among all Utahns, Jones finds:
— Cox has a 57 percent approval rating, only 17 percent don’t like him, and 27 percent don’t know him enough to have an opinion.
— Reyes has 52 percent approval, 20 percent disapproval, with 28 percent don’t know.
A former state House member, Dougall’s main problem now is Utahns as a whole don’t know who he is – although he’s been a high-profile auditor, for that job.
— Only 33 percent approve of Dougall, 8 percent disapprove, and a very large 60 percent don’t know him.
Of course, any Republican gubernatorial candidate must win first among his rank-and-file party voters.
Jones finds among Republicans only:
— Cox has a 64-7 percent approval rating, with 29 percent don’t know.
— Reyes has a 66-7 percent approval rating, with 27 percent don’t know.
— And Dougall has a 37-6 percent approval rating with 58 percent don’t know.
Dougall clearly already has an inside-the-party strategy.
For years the man has been traveling to every Republican Party county convention each year (there are 29 of them), as well as helping local and state GOP candidates where asked.
He’s probably worn out a car doing so. (Although being called “frugal” Dougall, he has a hybrid vehicle to save gasoline.)
Cox’s politics have taken an interesting turn – with the young farmer from the center of the state – commuting almost daily over 100 miles to the state Capitol.
He’s opposed President Donald Trump as being crass, defended the rights of gays and lesbians, and along with Utah House Speaker Greg Hughes, has championed the rehabilitation of homeless Utahns.
Helping poor, often addicted, Utahns and gay people is not the standard way to the Republican Party’s nomination to a major office.
For Cox, it is paying off among some political demographics not usually favorable to Republicans.
Examples:
— Jones finds that among Utah Democrats, the Republican Cox has a 43-38 percent approval rating, with 19 percent don’t know.
Forty-three percent of the opposite party liking you is pretty darn good.
By comparison, only 26 percent of Democrats approve of Reyes.
Only 21 percent like Dougall.
Jones finds that 66 percent of those who said they are “very conservative” approve of Cox.
Six percent of “very conservatives” don’t like Cox, while 27 percent don’t know.
Reyes has an approval rating among “very conservative” Utahns of 69-6 percent.
The “very conservatives,” who most likely see Dougall at local party events, have a 40-4 percent approval rating of him.
The approval numbers level out for all three men among “somewhat conservatives” and “moderates.”
But among those who say they are “somewhat” or “very” liberal, Cox again does very well.
— Among the “very liberal” Utahns, Cox actually has a positive approval rating, 41-39 percent. For a sitting Republican that is a remarkable number.
— Reyes is really disliked with a 49-19 percent disapproval rating among “very liberal” Utahns.
— And, again, that group doesn’t know Dougall, with 17 percent in favor of him, 17 percent opposed, and 65 percent don’t know.
If Cox runs, he most certainly will take the signature-gathering route to the primary ballot, as Herbert has done before him – and not worrying much about how GOP delegates treat him in convention.
That assumes SB54 is still the law of the land come 2020 – and with Herbert on the record as saying he will veto any attempt to repeal it, that seems likely.
Dougall would likely take only the convention route, counting on all that legwork he’s done with party activists/delegates helping him in the 2020 GOP convention.
Reyes is at this time saying he’s looking to run for AG again, but that could just be a smoke screen – as he waits to see how the 2020 GOP governor’s field shapes up.
As reported previously by UtahPolicy, Hughes is also looking at the 2020 race – even though he is retiring this year from the House.
Jones finds among all Utahns Hughes has a 33-20 percent approval rating with 47 percent not knowing who he is.
Jones polled 615 adults from May 15-25. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
