The polling in Utah’s 4th Congressional District is coming fast and furious with less than 60 days to go before the election. The latest survey, from Republican Mia Love’s pollster, shows the incumbent with a 9-point lead over Democrat Ben McAdams.
Last week a UtahPolicy.com survey gave Love a 3-point margin over McAdams. The Utah Debate Commission survey put Love ahead of McAdams by 9 points. A McAdams internal survey from last month showed Love ahead by just two points.
The new poll, from Y2 Analytics, is the first this election cycle showing Love over 50%. Love has never trailed in any public survey.
In the six public surveys released this year, Love’s average lead over McAdams is 5.5%, which is similar to the 6.2% margin of victory projected for Love by FiveThirtyEight.com.
Y2’s analysis of the race throws water on the idea that a “blue wave” of Democratic voters could turn out for McAdams this year, saying there is not a substantial block of “low-turnout Democratic voters” for McAdams to activate in November.
Conversely, Y2 says former presidential nominee Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket in the U.S. Senate race will likely drive up turnout among Republicans.
“During this year’s U.S. Senate Primary Election, Romney’s presence on the ticket drove turnout up to record-breaking levels. Higher turnout likely benefits Love because lower turnout voters in this district tend to lean Republican.”.
The full polling memo from Y2 is available here.
