While the 2018 election results reflected a sharply divided country, it became clearer just where the divisions are: urban vs. rural. And, for the 2020 presidential election, the emerging voting patterns appear to favor a Democratic candidate.
All sorts of factors will impact the 2020 race, so it’s too early to be making predictions. World events, the quality and ideology of the eventual Democratic nominee, and Trump’s success over the next year will all make a difference.
But it’s clear that Republicans need to shore up their support in city suburbs across the country, or trouble is ahead. Trump needs to tone down his rhetoric and stop alienating suburban voters, especially suburban women.
The fact that Republicans did well in Senate races, while Democrats took control of the House is a manifestation of the political shifts that are occurring. House districts are distributed across the country by population. Democrats dominate urban areas, where most of the people live, and Democrats now represent a majority of the U.S. population.
By contrast, U.S. senators represent the country geographically, with small states having the same power and number of senators as large states. Thus, Republicans can easily control the Senate without representing a majority of the nation’s population. Idaho and Utah have as much Senate clout as California and New York.
Large cities have long been heavily Democratic, and will always be so. But Republicans have offset the Democratic urban strength by holding rural America and a good share of suburban areas. If Republicans lose the suburbs, they are in serous trouble.
That’s especially true because more and more people are moving to urban and suburban areas. Many rural areas are declining in population, while urban areas grow. Republicans can afford to lose the big cities. But not the suburbs.
Thanks to the Electoral College, presidential races aren’t decided by the popular vote. Electoral votes are apportioned for the most part on a state winner-take-all basis. That can favor a Republican, but not by a large margin. The high-population urbanized states obviously have more electoral votes.
Trump’s apparent thinking that, to win, all Republicans need to adopt his red-meat, scorched-earth politics simply isn’t true. His put-down of Utah Congresswoman Mia Love for not “embracing” him was unfair. Had she cozied up to him she probably would have lost worse than she apparently will.
Trump needs to realize that his style of politics certainly works in some areas — but not all areas. He should stick to his conservative priorities and policies, and continue to promote them aggressively. The country has benefited from tax cuts, reducing regulation and conservative judicial picks.
But stop calling people names, show a little humility and civility, use some humor, and tone down the immigration rhetoric. Stop scaring moderate Republicans.
Or Republicans will face a difficult road in 2020.
