This could be an interesting year for GOP Gov. Gary Herbert and the Republican-controlled state Legislature.
Even before the session starts Monday, Herbert has staked out some political positions that conservative legislators may not like.
First, the governor wants a $200 million tax cut, considering there is $1.3 billion in extra tax revenues.
A tax cut is great for conservatives.
But Herbert wants it in the 2019 session. And most Republicans in the Legislature may prefer one in 2020 – an election year for all House members and half of the Senate.
In addition, Herbert wants the cuts coming in the state sales tax.
But GOP legislative leaders are already talking about cuts in the state income tax, not the sales tax.
Why?
Well, there are both political and practical reasons for the Republicans.
Sales tax cuts rarely go noticed. Even if lawmakers cut the 4.75 percent state tax to under 4 percent – which Herbert says can be done – almost no voter will actually see that cut, for you pay the sales tax daily and not on an annual income tax return – and so appreciate it at election time.
Even more, Herbert rightly has been talking about how Utah’s economy has changed – and where a decade ago the state taxed 70 percent of all sales, now it taxes only 40 percent – our service-based market has changed so much.
So, say GOP leaders, it makes little sense to broaden the tax base by taxing more services – as Herbert wants – and then cut the sales tax take even more than it is lagging now.
Thursday, Herbert said he is against a bill that would stop transgender people from officially changing their sex on their birth certificates.
Herbert – and his Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, who is clearly going to run for governor in 2020 – have been talking about being kinder to Utah’s gay community, not being more mean spirited to them.
But several well-known pro-family groups are against transgender people being able to change their birth records.
And leaders of the LDS Church have yet to weigh in on this bill – but one could see them in favor of it.
Taking on pro-family groups over a gay issue may not be something conservative lawmakers seeking re-election wish to do.
There will be an attempt to repeal SB54 – the dual track for candidates to the party primary, which has worked well in several previous elections.
Hardcore state Republican Party leaders are strongly against SB54; the party is before the U.S. Supreme Court on appeal trying to kill it, and Herbert/Cox aren’t doing themselves any party political favors by supporting it.
But the hard truth is, Cox – the official state elections officer – has upheld SB54 in all matters so far. And if it is repealed, Cox’s chances of making the 2020 GOP primary ballot are greatly reduced, if the only way he gets there is via archconservative state party delegates in convention.
So if weak-kneed Republican legislators pass a SB54 repeal, Herbert may indeed have to step up and veto it – otherwise Cox, his friend and political partner – can kiss the GOP gubernatorial nomination goodbye next year.
— There are hate crimes, abortion and any number of other hot-button issues that the retiring Herbert may be called upon to veto or get involved with, also, this session.
Herbert’s history is that he doesn’t veto many bills, and he is not heavy-handed in dealing with the Republican Legislature – much more honey than vinegar.
But with some GOP wannabees looking to challenge the Herbert legacy/Cox 2020 campaign, the governor may feel free to play a bit more hardball over the next 45 days.
