If the 2020 presidential election were held today in Utah, GOP President Donald Trump would get a plurality of the votes and win the state’s six Electoral College votes, a new UtahPolicy.com poll shows.
But the Dan Jones & Associates survey finds that Trump would only carry his hard-core support in the state – 35 percent.
Trump won Utah in basically a three-way race in 2016 with 45 percent of the vote.
There are new Democratic candidates announcing daily. And DJA started polling in early January, finishing several weeks ago. So some of the newer Democratic candidates to announce are not listed in the poll – although there is an “other” category.
The survey also shows a continuing problem for Trump in Utah: Women voters really don’t like him.
Here are some of the numbers:
-- Trump, a Republican, has 35 percent support among all Utah voters.
-- Former Vice President Joe Biden, a Democrat, has 14 percent of the voters.
-- Independent U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders comes in with 8 percent support.
-- U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., 7 percent.
-- Republican Ohio Gov. John Kasich has 6 percent.
-- Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who lost a U.S. Senate race in Texas last year, 3 percent.
-- Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is now a Democrat, 2 percent.
-- U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, D-New Jersey, 1 percent.
-- 6 percent mentioned some other announced or possible candidate.
-- And 17 percent don’t know who they would vote for if the election were today.
DJA finds a real difference in support for Trump among men and women in Utah, continuing a trend in the state of women not liking Trump:
-- 44 percent of male voters said they favor Trump in 2020.
-- But only 26 percent of women like Trump for re-election.
-- Only 13 percent of men are undecided, but 22 percent of women don’t know who they may vote for next year.
As would be expected, Trump gets the most support from Republicans. However, it is not as high as one might think.
-- 58 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Trump next year. But that leaves 42 percent of his own party not liking him at this time.
-- 16 percent of Republicans said they don’t know who they would vote for, with the rest of Republicans’ votes split among all the other candidates and Republican Kasich getting 8 percent of the GOP vote.
-- Biden does the best among Utah Democrats, with 23 percent support, Sanders a close second with 22 percent and Warren getting 19 percent.
Only 9 percent of Democrats don’t have a favorite at this time.
-- Political independents don’t much like Trump, either. He gets only 15 percent support from independents, Biden gets 21 percent, Sanders 12 percent, Warren 10 percent and 24 percent of independents don’t have a favorite for 2020.
Even though Trump has all kinds of moral questions – affairs outside of his marriages and such – those who said they are “very active” or “somewhat active” in their LDS faith still like Trump, with 43 percent in each category saying they would vote for him in 2020 – the highest percentage of any religious group in the state.
Trump also has by far the greatest support of those who told the pollster that they are “very” or “somewhat” conservative in the political views.
Trump gets 73 percent support among those who are “very” conservative and 43 percent support among the “somewhat” conservative voters.
Biden gets the most support among the “moderates” and “somewhat” liberal voters, while Sanders gets the most support among those who said they are “very” liberal.
UtahPolicy looks at voter statistics in the 4th U.S. House District, as Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams has to look over his shoulder in a district that normally votes Republican.
DJA finds that Trump has only 30 percent support in the district, which lies mostly in the western part of Salt Lake County.
Biden has 17 percent support in the 4th District, Sanders 10 percent, with 22 percent saying they don’t know who they like in next year’s presidential race.
So, 18 months out from our next presidential election, Trump has the most support from Utah voters, although at 35 percent it’s clear most voters aren’t standing with the president at this time.
DJA polled 822 voters from Jan. 3-15. The survey has a margin of error statewide of plus or minus 3.4 percent. DJA polled 203 voters in the 4th District with a margin of error of plus or minus 6.9 percent.