Well, the Mueller report – redacted as it is – came out and I, like a lot of other Utahns, spent time Thursday scanning some of its 448 pages and reading other parts in detail.
What does this all mean for Utah politics?
Probably not a great deal.
Robert Mueller basically punted on the question of Republican President Donald Trump obstructing justice in the Justice Department/FBI investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and the president’s response to it.
In the Vol. II summary on that issue there were numerous times that Trump ordered various administration officials to interfere with the investigation or fire Mueller and so on.
But from what I can tell, they just ignored Trump.
Is it a crime to order someone to do a crime, but the person so ordered does nothing?
That seems to be the bottom line.
And Mueller punts that to Attorney General William Barr, who says no – no obstruction of justice took place.
So, after all of this we are left with the political solutions:
= Impeachment by the Democratic-controlled U.S. House, with a trial in the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate.
= And/or the 2020 election, where Trump is clearly running for re-election and there doesn’t appear to be a Republican who can beat him for the GOP nomination.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (whom Trump calls “Nancy”) has said she doesn’t see impeachment as any kind of solution.
That is actually a smart political move.
For America is already hurting over its partisan divides, and highly partisan impeachment proceedings – with the clear outcome that the Senate would never convict Trump – only bleeds the public body unnecessarily.
So, the answer is the 2020 elections – with the hope for the majority of Americans, who don’t support the president, that a reasonable Democratic nominee can be found to beat him at the polls.
Or should I say the Electoral College vote, because as we’ve learned Trump can’t win the majority of voters.
In Utah, GOP statewide and congressional candidates would be wise to keep their distance from the president.
He didn’t campaign here in 2018.
He is not popular here.
He is damaged goods.
And since left alone, Utah GOP candidates in 2020 would do just fine without him, there is no real advantage for either Trump or the Republicans to do so next year.
Trump almost assuredly will win the state in 2020 – Utahns have not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
While the president has dodged a political bullet in the Mueller report, with Barr standing strongly in his corner, it is clear to me Trump’s legal problems have only been delayed.
A variety of reporting shows that either the New York state attorney general and/or federal attorneys in New York City will charge Trump at some point with financial fraud, tax evasion, or other crimes dealing with his business operations.
Trump may never go to jail, but the chances of big fines personally or with his businesses loom.
However, all of that likely will come after 2020, when, his opponents hope, he will be out of office.
Public opinion surveys, sooner or later, will show how Utahns feel about the Mueller report and the president not being charged with a crime – at least for now.
Utah Republican candidates in 2020 strongly standing with Trump do so at their own political peril, especially in the 4th Congressional District, which saw Democrat Ben McAdams win in a GOP-leaning district which has not embraced the president.
The Mueller report: No clear actions, more muddy water. Voters will decide in 2020.
