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Category: Today At Utah Policy

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Salt Lake City Councilwoman Erin Mendenhall is well-positioned to succeed Jackie Biskupski as the next Mayor of Salt Lake City according to a new survey.

The Utah Political Trends poll from UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics finds in a head-to-head matchup Mendenhall leads State Senator Luz Escamilla by 13-points (46-33%). 20% said they were still undecided at this point, while 1-percent of respondents said they weren’t voting.

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Y2 then asked those voters who were undecided which way they were leaning. We found 56% of undecided voters would break toward Escamilla, while 44% picked Mendenhall. Escamilla would need a larger percentage of undecided voters to tilt her way on election day to overcome the 13-point gap seen in the head to head matchup.

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Finally, voters were asked how certain they were about their vote come election day. Mendenhall has a clear majority when you add up voters who definitely

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All three of those factors suggest Mendenhall has an advantage heading into election day.

Mendenhall has a wide base of support from across the ideological spectrum in the straight head-to-head matchup. While Salt Lake City is primarily a Democratic city, winning the support of the Republican minority could be a key to victory.

The race has been touted as a matchup between the east and west sides of Salt Lake City. As expected, Escamilla pulls support from the west since that’s the area she represents in the state legislature. But, Mendenhall has a clear advantage on the east side of the city.

Mendenhall has a clear advantage in Districts 4-7.

Escamilla’s LDS faith entered the race earlier this year when former Mayor Rocky Anderson made it an issue in a social media post attacking her. Our polling finds:

The matchup is the first time in city history that two women are facing off in the mayoral election. Female voters are nearly evenly divided between the two candidates, with 44% preferring Mendenhall and 36% favoring Escamilla. Male voters clearly support Mendenhall 48-30%.

Almost a quarter of voters (24%) said they made up their mind about who to vote for before this summer. 20% decided on who to vote for in September. Almost a third decided how to cast their ballot in October while 25% said they are still deciding who to vote for.

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The Utah Political Trends survey was conducted by Y2 Analytics among 745 registered voters in Salt Lake City from October 16-22, 2019. It has a margin of error +/- 3.6%.