It will be a sprint to the finish line for Utah political candidates over the next eight weeks. Campaigns that have been rather quiet – like the Utah gubernatorial race – will heat up. Formal debates will begin in a few weeks. Around Oct. 13, mail ballots will start to be distributed.
Campaign advertising will become more ubiquitous as candidates try to make their pitches before ballots are returned. Criticism of opponents will become more pointed as campaigns realize the only way to win is to draw sharp contrasts.
National advertising will begin to flow in the 4th Congressional District race between incumbent Democrat Ben McAdams and GOP challenger Burgess Owens. If the partisan attacks become too nasty, they could backfire and create sympathy for the one being attacked.
McAdams has already spent an immense amount of money on ads designed to inoculate him against Republican attacks. His TV spots define him as a nice family man and a political moderate who is supported by many Republicans.
Burgess and Republicans will attempt to nationalize the race and portray McAdams as a Nancy Pelosi Democrat who will do her bidding when asked. McAdams seems to be well ahead of the Republicans in framing the race as he wishes.
Presidential results likely to be disputed. I’m almost as worried about the candidates and their supporters accepting the outcome of the presidential election as I am about who wins. I believe a very real threat exists that the loser isn’t going to accept the result without a bitter fight.
A blowout victory by either Trump or Biden would prevent a nasty conflict, but that isn’t likely. Both sides are preparing to cast doubt on the election outcome. Hillary Clinton said Biden should not concede “under any circumstances.” Democrats are citing Russian interference as reason to question the outcome, if Biden loses.
Trump is clearly laying the groundwork to challenge the results. He will cite mail-in ballot delays and irregularities. Final vote tallies may not be reported in some states until days after the Nov. 3 election, providing plenty of time for confusion and conspiracy theories. The hyper-partisans on both sides literally hate each other and have no appetite for concessions or accepting defeat. I am concerned about chaos on election night.
A disputed election will be very bad for the country and for democracy. It will produce even deeper levels of discord and conflict. Unfortunately, the next president has little chance of unifying the country.
Should blue states get a bailout? A major sticking point in the congressional fight over the next coronavirus relief package is how much additional money should be given to state and local governments to help deal with budget shortfalls.
Republicans say they are willing to provide $150 billion, which they argue is enough to cover true pandemic-caused shortfalls. Democrats want $900 billion. It wouldn’t be fair to states like Utah, which has managed its state budget prudently, for the federal government to bail out states that mismanaged their economies even before the pandemic. Remember that federal relief money will all be borrowed, plunging the nation even further into debt. See more at THE HILL.
Stories worth reading. Greg Bell is flat-out one of the world’s great human beings. Proof is his last column for the Deseret News. Tribune had an interesting story by Lee Davison about Utah’s largest political donors. At least 25 Utahns have given $100,000 or more. And check out Robert Gehrke’s column on “the long strange trip” of former legislator Steve Urquhart forming a church of magic mushrooms.
Reader response. Robert Sykes, an attorney and probably the last conservative Republican to win a legislative race in a Salt Lake City district (more than 30 years ago), commented on my surprise that Trump isn’t losing badly, given the forces arrayed against him: “My answer,” said Sykes, “is that he appeals to the common man, like no other that I have seen in 40 years. He’s a lot like Reagan in that regard. I think he’ll get 30+ percent of the African-American vote, maybe more. That will swing many close, battleground states. I believe the gap will widen as Biden’s flaws become more noticeable. ‘Widen on Biden.’ I should trademark that.” Sykes bet me a dinner that Trump wins the Electoral College. Stay tuned.
Parting shot. Is BYU football really that good? Or is Navy just that bad? Too bad all the games with big-name schools were canceled. Maybe we won’t find out this year how good BYU is.
