I don’t usually make election predictions. But my old friend and longtime associate Bob Bernick did make predictions for many decades when he was writing political columns. I always wanted to be like Bob, so since he’s mostly retired, I’ll fill in. And maybe I’ll coax him out of retirement to do some more writing.
Bob was often wrong, but never in doubt. By contrast, I’m usually pretty wishy-washy on close races. My guesses aren’t any better than anyone else’s.
The big one: I have serious reservations about Pres. Trump, but I even less want Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to take over the presidency. Still, I’m going to stay traditional and go with the national polls and conventional wisdom and predict a Biden win.
I fully get all the arguments from my Trump-supporting friends that the pollsters are wrong and that things are breaking for Trump in the last week. I hear the pitch that Trump is winning more Hispanic and black support than in 2016. But the national polls aren’t showing enough movement and it’s likely the pollsters learned something from 2016 and are counting more of those “shy” Trump voters.
If Trump does win, it will be almost miraculous. By all normal standards, he should lose badly. I don’t blame Trump for COVID-19, or the 227,000 people who have died. But lots of voters do. In addition, the economy was destroyed and an immense number of jobs lost. Add to that the general news media hatred of Trump, and his personality disorders and character flaws — and how could he possibly win? We’ll soon see.
4th District. In the dirtiest and most expensive race I’ve ever seen in Utah, I’m going with Ben McAdams to narrowly win. I’m really disgusted with both candidates for their nasty campaigns. Both sides have lied and distorted their opponents’ records. No matter who wins, it’s going to take some effort to restore a sullied reputation.
I’m familiar enough with both candidates to know they’re actually nice people. But I guess they make the argument: In order to be a nice politician and bring people together to solve problems, I first have to win election. And to get elected well, dang, I’m going to have to drag my opponent through the mud and destroy him. The end justifies the means.
McAdams wins because Owens isn’t a really strong candidate and McAdams hit the airwaves early, defining Owens negatively before he had a chance to define himself.
Blake Moore, Chris Stewart and John Curtis easily win their races.
The U.S. Senate. Republicans barely maintain control. Voters don’t want to hand over the entire government to the Democrats. Democrats increase their majority in the U.S. House.
State races. Cox wins. Reyes wins. Republicans maintain super-majority control of the Legislature.
