Democrat Jonathan Swinton was shockingly forced into a primary election against Misty Snow at Saturday's Democratic State Convention.
That's bad news for Swinton. Even if he survives the primary against Snow, he will have a ton of ground to make up if he's hoping to pull the upset over Republican Senator Mike Lee in November.
A new UtahPolicy.com survey finds, if Swinton were to face Lee right now at the ballot box, Lee would triumph 54-28%. 18% of voters say they would be undecided.
Even though Lee would only win 54% of the vote in a matchup against Swinton, that would be enough. Usually, if an incumbent is polling higher than 50% ahead of an election, that usually points toward a win.
It's really bad news for Swinton that he was forced into a primary against Snow. According to FEC reports, Swinton has just $1,913 on hand after the convention. The money he raises now will have to go toward his primary battle with Snow. Those are resources he could really use against Lee, who has more than $1 million on hand. Every dollar Swinton spends against Snow is a dollar he cannot spend in a battle against Lee.
Lee has a broad base of support in a matchup against Swinton:
- Lee wins men 58-28%
- Lee wins the women's vote 50-28%
- Millennial voters (those 18-24) favor Lee 47-24%
- Republicans would pick Lee 76-7%
- The "very conservative" back Lee 90-1%
- "Somewhat conservative" Utahns would vote for Lee 70-13%
Swinton's support is much more narrow:
- Not surprisingly, Democrats favor Swinton 78-7%
- Swinton has a slight lead among independents 41-37%
- "Somewhat liberal" Utahns back Swinton 64-16%
- Utahns who describe themselves as "very liberal" pick Swinton 77-5%.
Moderates are nearly tied between the two candidates with Swinton winning 39% to Lee's 38%.
The survey was conducted March 23 - April 5, 2016, by Dan Jones & Associates among 600 adult Utahns with a margin of error +/- 4.0%.