Utah is certainly not turning out to be friendly territory for Donald Trump. A new UtahPolicy.com survey gives the presumptive GOP nominee a 9-point lead over Democratic foe Hillary Clinton.
The survey, conducted by Dan Jones & Associates, finds Trump with 36% of the vote in Utah. Clinton would get 27%. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson has 10%, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein pulls in 2%. 18% said they would prefer another candidate while 2% were undecided.
Trump's share of the vote is virtually unchanged from a recent Salt Lake Tribune poll that showed Trump and Clinton tied at 35%. A UtahPolicy.com survey from May gave Trump a 43-30% lead. This is the first Utah survey that includes both Johnson and Stein.
Trump's numbers are being held down by independent voters in Utah who clearly don't support his candidacy.
28% of independent voters would vote for Trump. 24% would cast a ballot for Clinton. However, 15% in this group want Gary Johnson, while nearly 1/4 (23%) say they would vote for another candidate.
Utah Republicans are starting to come around to supporting Trump. 57% of GOP voters would pick the real estate tycoon. However, 19% said they would vote for some other candidate, and 10% don't know.
Those numbers clearly spell trouble for Trump, who is going to have to convince those fence-sitters and "others" to join his camp.
The Utah GOP clearly realizes that Trump has a problem in Utah. The Salt Lake Tribune reported Utah GOP chairman James Evans visited with Trump over the weekend to convince him to campaign in Utah ahead of November's election.
Not surprisingly, Clinton has mostly locked up Democratic support in Utah, with 88% of Utah Democrats saying they would vote for her. Jill Stein gets zero support from Utah Democrats as not a single one of the respondents in that group said they would vote for her. 7% of Utah Democrats said they would vote for someone else. That someone else is presumably a write-in vote for Bernie Sanders, who overwhelmingly won the March presidential preference vote over Clinton.
Women and millennial voters could be a particular problem area for Trump in November. Women voters slightly prefer Clinton to Trump by a 34-29% margin, while their male counterparts tilt toward Trump by a 43-20% margin.
The youngest cohort of voters in our survey, those between 18 and 24, prefer Clinton to Trump 25-17%. Those between 25 and 34 also favor Clinton by a 27-17% tally. After that, the numbers reverse. The older Utahns are, the more they prefer Trump.
The LDS Church has stood in opposition to some of Trump's policy proposals, particularly against his proposal to ban all Muslims from entering the U.S. Trump has since doubled down on that call, in the wake of last week's massacre at an Orlando night club. That public opposition has apparently cut into Trump's popularity with that group. He has less than 50% support from Mormons, who usually lean Republican. Other faith groups in Utah are lining up behind Clinton.
- "Very active" Mormons pick Trump over Clinton 42-14%
- "Somewhat active" Mormons would vote for Trump over Clinton by a 46-15% margin.
- Non-active members of the LDS Church prefer Clinton by a 39-28% margin.
- Catholics overwhelmingly want Clinton over Trump 55-10%.
- Protestants slightly favor Clinton over Trump by a 48-41%. margin.
The survey was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates from June 8-17, 2016 among 614 registered Utah voters with a margin of error +/- 3.95%.