Utah reaching 70% immunity would decrease COVID-19 cases by 94.7%

New models rank Utah vaccination needs as more vital than other states

Epistemix, a computational modeling software company that develops simulations to model the spread of diseases and inform policy, released new national data that demonstrates the vast difference in COVID-19 infections based on 50% and 70% vaccination coverage. The report shows Utah reaching 70% immunity would decrease statewide COVID-19 cases by 94.7% — one of the highest in the country. 

The report analyzes data on a state by state basis, and highlights the states that need to prioritize reaching the 70% vaccination threshold. It ranks Utah as the fouth most positively impacted by reaching the higher vaccination rate, following New York, Florida, and North Carolina. 

“Now is a vital time to reach immunity thresholds that would allow life to safely return to normal in Utah,’ said John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix. “There is a herd immunity gap in the state that will impede a safe return to normalcy. Our epidemiological simulations show that if Utah is able to reach 70% immunity, their total number of COVID-19 infections would decrease by 94.7%.”

The data takes into account variants of concern, population density, and immunity waning over time. It notes that at 50% immunity, the state would average 572 cases a week. At 70% immunity, the state would average 26 cases a week. 

Other key findings include:

  • Moving from 50% to 70% vaccination coverage will decrease cases in every state by a national average of 78%.
  • Densely populated states like New York and Florida can reduce the number of weekly cases by 97% if they reach the 70% vaccination threshold. 
  • States with historically high transmission rates like South Dakota, North Dakota and Arizona would only decrease cases by 55% once 70% of the population is vaccinated.

As the White House pushes for the nation to have 70% of the population vaccinated by July 4th, Epistemix is able to pinpoint which states and zip codes need to reach that target first. 

An interactive map with each state’s data can be found here.

About Epistemix

Epistemix empowers leaders to make better decisions by simulating how diseases, ideas, and behavior spread through communities. We leverage decades of epidemiological experience, diverse datasets, and scientific best-practice to build computational models that forecast the health impacts of policy interventions, so that organizations can take informed action. We are currently working with companies, event organizers, school districts, and state governments across the United States to evaluate opening strategies and gauge COVID-19 response. To learn more, visit www.epistemix.com.