Utah emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic larger, more tied to in migration, older, more racially and ethnically diverse, supported by an elite economy, and grappling with high housing costs. Lower fertility contributes to these changes. While the pandemic did not cause these transitions, it accelerated them. A new monograph published today by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute outlines six significant transitions, all associated with growth and change, and deeply interconnected.
“Utah faces a critical inflection point,” said Natalie Gochnour, Director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. “Demographic and economic changes have created a New Utah, which requires state and local government to be more effective, responsive, speedy, and innovative to keep Utah thriving. The New Utah requires bold action.”
These findings were shared with Utah legislators at their recent planning summit in St. George, Utah. The findings have also been shared with the Utah Governor’s Office and many other decision-makers around the state.
Key findings from the monograph include the following:
More populous, mid-sized state – Since 2010, Utah transitioned from a small-sized state to a medium-sized state. Between 2010 and 2020, Utah leap-frogged four states – Iowa, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Nebraska. Utah’s population rank is expected to keep climbing.
External growth and much lower fertility – Utah gained more population from external growth (in migration) than internal growth (births minus deaths) over the past two years. Migration tis expected to outpace internal growth, even as it ebbs and flows in individual years.
Older population – Utah’s population continues to age as fertility rates remain well below replacement level and existing generations age. This aging trend is expected to continue, with even greater impacts in coming decades.
More multicultural – Utah enjoys a rich multicultural heritage and has become even more multicultural over the past few decades. Today, nearly one in four Utahns is a racial/ethnic minority, which is expected to only increase over time. As recently as 1990, this percentage was one in ten.
Elite economy – Utah’s traditionally strong economy has become elite relative to other states. For example, Utah’s job growth consistently ranks at or near the top of states. The Utah economy is expected to continue to be among the best performing economies in the nation.
Unaffordable housing – Utah’s home prices shifted markedly in recent years from tracking with U.S. prices to remaining well above the U.S. average. Utah’s supply of housing has failed to keep pace with demand. Unless the state significantly increases its housing supply, high housing costs are expected to continue, presenting a significant challenge to Utah’s economic competitiveness.
The full results and methodology are now available online.
