Data show declining K-12 school enrollment over the next decade, presenting unique fiscal opportunities
Utah’s demographic changes significantly impact school enrollment and related funding. Projections show declining K-12 school enrollment over the next decade, resulting from lower fertility rates and demographic waves. New analysis from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute reveals these demographic shifts will relieve the fiscal pressures of funding enrollment growth in Utah’s K-12 education system, creating unique fiscal opportunities.
“Declining K-12 student enrollment in coming decades will unevenly affect Utah’s communities. Some regions may experience nearly 50% drops while others continue to grow rapidly, requiring tailored responses from leaders across the state,” said Andrea Brandley, Senior Education Analyst at the Gardner Institute, and lead author of the report. “Student population declines will have substantial budget impacts, which presents a unique fiscal opportunity to increase K-12 per-pupil funding, alter tax levels, or allocate revenue growth to other programs.”
Key findings from the report include the following:
Youth Population Decline – Demographers project meaningful declines in Utah’s school-age population (age 5-17) over the next decade, beginning in 2024. This projected decline results in both a smaller absolute count (about 40,000 fewer school-age youth by 2032) and school-age youth making up a smaller share of Utah’s total population (dropping from 19.5% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2032).
Uneven Youth Population Change – Youth population declines will not uniformly impact Utah communities. Projections suggest some areas may experience youth population declines of nearly 50%, while others will experience much smaller declines. Other areas (particularly Utah County) will continue to grow rapidly.
Sizable Fiscal Shifts – Slowing, declining, and changing student counts foreshadow major fiscal shifts, with some effects already occurring. Because student enrollment counts drive a large share of school operational funding, enrollment changes can greatly alter school budgets.
Unique Fiscal Opportunity – Historically, funding enrollment growth placed high demands on Utah taxpayers. Youth population declines will provide some relief from these cost pressures, creating opportunities to sizably increase K-12 per-pupil spending, alter tax levels, or shift funding to other programs.
The full report is available online.
