Is Donald Trump’s Campaign Already Failing?

Donald TrumpHow daunting is Donald Trump’s path to victory? Some are calling his campaign an “electoral disaster waiting to happen.”

Demographics expert William Frey from the Brookings Institution says there’s really no reasonable path for Trump to win in November.


Mr. Frey tested different turnout assumptions, including improbably optimistic ones, like if 99 percent of white, non-college-educated men turned out to vote. None of the chain of events produced a Trump victory.


In fact, even if virtually all of the white, non-college-educated men eligible to vote did so, Mr. Frey found, Mrs. Clinton would still win the popular vote by 1.1 million.

Trump is even struggling to put together the same coalition that Mitt Romney lost with in 2012. Romney carried the white vote that year largely behind a 27-point margin among white men. Trump’s weakness among women voters and non-whites means even if he sweeps the white male vote, it won’t be enough to propel him to victory.