2016 Election Projections: Statewide and Congressional Races

UPDlogoUtah Democrats have lost 28 statewide elections in a row dating back to 1992. That trend isn’t likely to end this year as we think Republicans are poised to win big this year.

Our first set of projections for statewide and congressional races for 2016 finds Republican candidates in great position to win big this year.

  • Gov. Gary Herbert has a 41-point lead over Democrat Mike Weinholtz. Weinholtz recently shook up his campaign staff, which is never a good sign for a struggling campaign.
  • Sen. Mike Lee enjoys a 35-point lead over Democrat Misty Snow.

In the Congressional races, Republicans are mostly expected to romp over their Democratic opponents.

The only question mark right now is freshman Republican Mia Love, who many expect to have a tough time winning a second term in her rematch with Democrat Doug Owens. We rate the Love/Owens rematch as “lean Republican” right now because our polling shows Love with a 13-point lead over Owens. Love also has a big fundraising advantage as well, which is why she has the edge.