Our “Political Insiders” expect Republican Mia Love to prevail over Democrat Doug Owens, but it’s by no means a sure thing.
61% of the Republicans on our panel say Love should beat Owens by a comfortable margin of five points or more in November. Only 11% of Republicans say Owens will eke out a victory.
Only 40% of the Democrats we surveyed think Owens will win, while 60% picked a Love victory of some sort.
Our readers are nearly evenly split, with 51% picking an Owens win and 49% saying Love will be victorious.
The most recent polls have given Love a double-digit lead in the race, but there are indications the race is tightening. Outside groups are pouring nearly $1 million into the contest in the final weeks before the election.
Selected anonymous comments:
“Most folks (and polls) are continuing to underestimate the effect that 100% vote-by-mail will have in Salt Lake County. Because of vote by mail, Salt Lake County (Owens’ strong base) will have larger than average turnout. Utah County (Mia’s strong base) is not 100% vote-by-mail. Turnout there will be average. Accordingly, this race will be a squeaker.”
“Turnout here is key, but Mia has run a much better campaign this year than she did two years ago.”
“The combination of Mia Love not distinguishing herself during her first term and the hemorrhaging of the Republican base allows Doug Owens to win, but barely.”
“There is so much mud-slinging from both sides of this campaign, I don’t think that there will be a major upset for Mr. Owens (The issues are pretty muddied up from both sides). This election will be decided by the party faithful of each party voting to support their candidate; thus, Ms. Love wins. I don’t think that as many of Republicans will defect to vote for Mr. Owens, as they did in the last election. The majority will rule in this case. The Republican Party in this state has every major race well sewn up (some, justifiably so, and others a shame).”
“Things have been trending Mia’s way, and frankly Doug has not given anyone a good reason to vote for him. It is funny that the Utah Dem’s spend all their time railing against straight white men and how horrible they are and yet their antidote to defeat a black woman congressman is a straight white male.”
“The redistricting served its purpose. Thanks to the Utah Leg, we have no competitive federal races and few legislative races. What a scam.”
“This race will tighten slightly but won’t be close.”
“She is running stronger than I expected. It’s hard to see how Owens makes up the remaining ground in the short time remaining.”
“Owens has run a soft, weak campaign. Love has hit her stride and run an efficient and effective campaign.”
“The emergence of Evan McMullin brings enough GOP voters to the polls to offset the high Democrat turnout during election years.”
“According to Owens internal poll, she will win by 10%. In fairness, Owens is a good candidate. He would be a Congressman in most other states.”
“Owens never defined who he was while Love did it for him-an out of touch liberal. Also, he just has not done enough in the community to create an image.”
“Doug Owens is the better candidate and would better represent Utah. Unfortunately, Mia Love’s incumbency gives her a huge advantage in this race.”
“This is completely aspirational. It is shameful that Mia has so much money coming from out of state. She’s not that bad, but she hasn’t done much to brag on either.”