Utahns are basically locked in on their presidential picks – and you don’t move them much if you force them to choose between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, a new UtahPolicy poll finds.
We asked Dan Jones & Associates to put Republican Trump up against Democrat Clinton in just a two-person race.
And then we pushed the “undecided” even more, asking if they were leaning toward Trump or Clinton.
The two questions are aimed at finding the core support for the two candidates – one of whom will be the next U.S. president.
Jones finds:
- 45 percent of Utah likely voters said they would support Trump if it were only a two-person race.
- 34 percent said they would vote for Clinton.
- And 20 percent wouldn’t choose, saying they were “undecided.”
Jones then pushed that 20 percent “undecided,” asking which way they were leaning:
- Only 8 percent then picked Trump.
- Only 5 percent then picked Clinton.
- And 87 percent wouldn’t be moved, saying they would remain undecided.
As already reported in UtahPolicy, Jones’ new poll finds that among all the primary candidates, Trump gets 30 percent support, independent Evan McMullin gets 29 percent, Clinton gets 26 percent, and the other candidates make up the rest of the percentage, with 4 percent undecided.
Clinton has just put five more full-time staffers into her recently-opened Salt Lake City campaign office, perhaps believing she has some kind of shot at winning the Beehive State.
Jones’ new survey showing her base at 34 percent may give her a bit of hope, but it appears with two weeks left in the campaign that it will be either Trump or McMullin – an active Mormon from Utah County – as the likely winner of Utah’s six Electoral College votes.
Clinton doesn’t need Utah’s votes to win Nov. 8. Trump likely must have them (and a lot more swing states) or he won’t find his way to a 270 Electoral College majority.
Here are some interesting demographic numbers in a measurement of Trump’s and Clinton’s base support in Utah:
- Clinton doesn’t do much better among women than Trump – a real difference from the female vote across the nation.
Trump gets 33 percent support from women, Clinton gets 36 percent support. Twenty-four percent of women said they are undecided.
- Young Utahns really go for Clinton.
She beats Trump, 46-32 percent among those ages 18-24; and she betters him, 50-27 percent among those 25-34 years old.
Those are crushing numbers, and should give Utah GOP leaders some pause as the national Republican Party looks to reorganize after a Trump defeat this year.
- Utah Republicans go heavily for Trump (without McMullin in the race), 70 percent. But 21 percent are “undecided.”
- Utah Democrats, it follows, heavily for Clinton, 97 percent.
- But Utah political independents split for Clinton, 44-33 percent, with 23 percent “undecided.”
Even though the Mormon-owned Deseret News said Trump should get out of the race following his sexist audiotape remarks, Utah “very active Mormons” still go for Trump in the two-person race, 53-22 percent, with a quarter of active Mormons “undecided.”
Trump gets more “somewhat Mormon,” and “non-active Mormon” votes than Clinton, also.
But those with no religion go heavily to Clinton, 77-14 percent.
Finally, Utah is basically a white, Anglo-Saxon state; we don’t have a lot of racial minorities here.
But among the Hispanics measured in Jones’ latest poll, 71 percent are for Clinton, only 29 percent for Trump, with zero percent undecided – that shows Utah Hispanics aren’t unsure about the Republican Party’s nominee.
Jones polled 818 likely voters from Oct. 12-20. The statewide survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.43 percent.
