A good pollster. While pollsters across the country are getting beat up for missing Trump’s presidential win, I believe Utah Policy Daily’s pollster, Dan Jones & Associates, did a fine job measuring opinion in Utah.
Of course, we didn’t conduct research immediately before the election predicting the outcome, so Jones’ numbers didn’t need to perfectly reflect the final results. But I think throughout the election season Jones has accurately measured public opinion in Utah. The reason is that Jones works incredibly hard to obtain a sample that accurately reflects Utah voters and citizens. An accurate sample makes all the difference in polling. Jones also uses a variety of techniques to reach the sample, including landline contact, cell phone contact, on-line panels, and email. Good survey research is harder today and takes longer than when landlines were the only means of contact.
I chatted with Utah Senate Pres. Wayne Niederhauser the day after the election and he said he had an inkling a few days before voting commenced that something different than expected might be afoot. He said he had a recent meeting with legislators around the country and some of them said they were seeing grassroots people get interested in the election who hadn’t voted for years. Pollsters gather samples from likely voters, which means those who have voted in the last few election. If a lot of people turned out who hadn’t voted for a while, the pollsters would have missed them.
Orrin Hatch for U.S. Supreme Court? I think Orrin Hatch would be a terrific Supreme Court pick. I understand the conventional wisdom that Trump would want to pick someone much younger who will have an impact on the court for decades. But Hatch has a lot of years of service left in him, as evidenced by his apparent desire to seek another term. He could be in the Senate for eight more years. Why not spend that time as a member of the high court?
Hatch would be a slam-dunk to be confirmed by the Senate. Trump could nominate him on his first day in office and have a full court up and running in no time at all. With Hatch’s impeccable conservative credentials, especially on judicial issues, Trump would send a strong signal to conservatives, some of whom are skeptical of him, that he’s going to govern in a conservative way. It would be a great way for Trump to start out his presidency, even if Hatch didn’t end up serving for very many years.
It would be a fitting ending to Hatch’s storied political career. And it would make a lot of younger Republicans happy who want to run for his seat.
I say, why not?
Trump flexibility. Interestingly, Trump has the ability to be more “flexible” (meaning he forgets about his campaign promises) than any new president in memory. The reason is that his supporters cut him as much slack as he needs. He can say one thing and do another with near-impunity. Like he once said, he could shoot someone in the street, and his followers would stick with him.
Of course, the media, Democrats, and others will blast him for flip-flopping. But who cares? Trump has shown he blows right through that sort of criticism.
So, hopefully, Trump has the flexibility to back off some of his dumber pledges, like building the wall and having Mexico pay for it. And banning Muslims. And rounding up every illegal immigrant . . . and so forth.
