Our “Political Insiders” expect Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump’s newest Supreme Court nominee, to cruise through his confirmation and be installed on the high court before the 2018 midterms.
Trump nominated Kavanaugh last week to replace the retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy. Republicans have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, meaning if all of the GOP members vote to confirm him, he’ll go through.
Democrats are trying to convince two Republicans to vote against Kavanaugh, which is the only way they can stop him from replacing Kennedy.
Republicans in the Senate are pushing to confirm Kavanaugh before the 2018 midterm elections, but Democrats say the GOP should follow their example when they blocked President Obama from naming a replacement for Justice Antonin Scalia because it was an election year.
Our “Political Insiders” think the GOP will be able to confirm Kavanaugh before November’s election. 92% of Republicans, 64% of the Democrats on our panel and 67% of our readers say Kavanaugh will win confirmation prior to the election. Just a handful of those groups think Kavanaugh’s confirmation will come after the election or he won’t be confirmed at all.
Selected anonymous comments:
It’s a no-brainer, he gets confirmed before October 2018. Democrats will complain and put up a fight, but they don’t have the numbers to change the outcome.
Will be one of the fastest confirmations in modern times.
Here we go… The opposite side will drag out it’s feigned oppressive cries of some rights being trampled on somehow… The whole process has turned into political theater. Ridiculous.
Kavanaugh is very qualified and will be just fine. If the process gets nasty, it will only hurt the Dems in the long run and maybe even swing a Senate seat like Florida to be a Republican gain. Manchin will vote to confirm along with other red state Dems.
Since a SCOTUS pick will turn out the Republican base, it is likely the proceedings will take place close to the election. Still, Republicans have a 51-49 majority. Collins and Murkowski are likely yes votes and Manchin, Heitkamp and Donnelly will have pressure on them to vote yes. Surely he will get at least two of those votes.
The pressure on Rs will be too great for any of them to dare defect.
Anyone who doesn’t think he will not be confirmed before mid-terms also thought Mike Lee was going to be nominated.
The Democrats, thanks to their own inability to see into the future, have no power to stop the confirmation. The only thing that can stop the confirmation (other than a scandal) is the defection of moderate Republican senators, but the pressure on every member of the GOP caucus to toe the party line will be too strong for any of them to give any serious consideration to jumping ship.
Too many Democrat Senators up for election this year in states Trump won. This will be a done deal by September 1. There is simply no path for the Democrats to block it.
All the Republicans will hold, and 4 Dems will vote ‘yes’ also.
Kavanaugh will be confirmed. The utter shamelessness of both parties is discrediting our political system. Scare tactics by the Democrats and stupid smugness by the Republicans are the reason I don’t watch national news broadcasts at all. The talking heads, conservative or liberal fuel the fire. This is not about ideologies; it is about common sense governance.
The GOP margin is razor thin. With McCain not being able to travel to DC to vote, only one GOP senator can vote no and still accomplish the confirmation. With Kavanaugh’s writings stating that a president should avoid criminal or civil actions while president, the confirmation is absolutely not a given.
I’m a Democrat, but I say, yes, because let’s not kid ourselves. The Republicans control the Senate. They will make it happen.
As much as liberals (including myself) hope that all Democrats and Susan Collins will vote no, Collins and 2-4 vulnerable Democrats will vote to support to appeal to conservative constituents.
By pushing so hard to avoid confirming Merrick Garland, the Republican (slim) majority in Congress has legitimized an effort by the Democrats to avoid confirming Brett Kavanaugh. I foresee the Democrats working hard to postpone any confirmation vote until after the midterms when they might be in a stronger position.
