Where does the Love/McAdams race really stand? Our ‘Political Insiders” give us their best guesses

Nobody knows where the hotly contested 4th CD race between Mia Love and Ben McAdams really stands. UtahPolicy.com’s most recent survey gives Love a 3-point lead. An internal poll from Love’s campaign puts her edge at 9-points, while McAdams’ own polling says the race is a 2-point margin for Love.

Our Republican “Political Insiders” mostly think Love has a lead of 5-points or less, while the Democrats on our panel primarily say the race is likely tied. Our readers are mainly split between those two choices. 

Adding to the ambiguity, all of the public surveys were conducted before Mia Love’s campaign was embroiled in a campaign finance controversy, where she has been accused of trying to “game the system,” raising more than $1 million in campaign cash for a primary election that never happened. We have no idea what, if any, effect that story will have on the hottest political race in Utah this year.

Here’s how their answers broke down:


Selected anonymous comments:

The real question is how many are undecided?

We all know that polls are a complete waste of time this far out.

The power of incumbency is strong, but the race is closer than Mia’s internal numbers are saying. I think many of the undecideds could still swing to Ben if he gets better ads and continues to hammer his no on Pelosi messaging.

Ben has to take a good portion of traditional Republican voters to win, and that will be a steep hill for him to climb unless Mia makes mistakes or if the “Trump effect” that no one can really predict helps him somehow.

The recent revelations about Mia’s campaign finance deception should take Ben over the top.

Look at all the demographics of the district and previous elections. Love leads, and it will take a major mistake for her to lose.

Ben McAdams is a far stronger candidate than Doug Owens was and will make this a competitive race.

I think Mia is in for a surprise. She has been too harsh and mean, and voters are noticing it and don’t like it.

Despite her money advantage, Love will lose. Voters are fed up with Trump. Voters in the 4th CD should look at her productivity and compare it to Rep. Curtis in the 3rd CD. Curtis has accomplished more in 9 months than she has in 4 years. Love is collecting a paycheck and donations (most from outside Utah) and not much else. McAdams has a record of getting things done and people in the 4th CD notice.

This will be the marquee race in Utah. Loads of $$$ and PACs will come into the State to take this seat from the R’s.

Likely around 5 +/- 2 based on what I hear, but if Mia’s latest misstep gains traction, I could see this get closer. Not a great look to be guilty of breaking campaign finance laws, but the response by her was somehow worse.

There is plenty of reason for Mia to worry as Democrats will turn out in higher numbers this year, and the moderate Republicans will feel safe crossing the aisle to vote for McAdams.

Trump is dragging Love down.

This race will continue to be tight, but the gap will widen as McAdams goes increasingly negative.

This is going to be a tight one, and both candidates are excellent.

The Love McAdams race looks like a tie to me at this time. Even though I’m a Republican, I would like to see McAdams win. We need another moderate Democrat voice in our delegation like Jim Matheson was, not to give balance (heaven forbid), but to have a different pair of eyes on the issues that affect Utah and the nation. Ben plays well with others, has integrity and will have the best interests of Utahans at heart. He is a welcome “happy medium.” Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaase don’t report me to the “Gang of 51” okay?

Ben will win! Mia has already started negative ads, and they will backfire on her this time.

This one will come down to the wire. Mia wins if Republicans show up at the polls. All bets are off if Republicans in the district are complacent and don’t vote.

I think Love has a small lead, but she has the absolute potential to blow it if she campaigns in a way that attacks McAdams too much. Depending on how much of a stir the FEC violations cause, it might cost her a point. I think she’s definitely winning, but I’d say McAdams has a 2 in 5 chance, roughly.

She will pull it off. Utah citizens are too sensible to elect a Democrat, who will vote for Pelosi, regardless of what he says.

This will be a close one. Love will squeak by with 2-3% over McAdams unless there is a higher than usual mid-term election turnout among Democrats.

Love is leading. Because this is such a Republican district, if McAdams wins, it will be by less than 1 point.

Still can’t figure out why Ben’s kids all walked into the bathroom together.

Mail-in ballots will give Democrats a bigger turnout that models are predicting, energized liberal base will do the same.