A new internal poll from Democrat Ben McAdams’ campaign shows him with a slim 1-point lead over Republican Mia Love.
The survey, released on Friday, shows McAdams leading Love 47-46%.
The poll from the Mellman Group was conducted October 7-10, 2018. It’s just the latest indication that the race between Love and McAdams will likely be a nailbiter on November 6. The survey has a margin of error +/- 4.9%, so the 1-point lead for McAdams falls squarely in the middle.
All of the independent polling up to this point has shown Love with a slight lead over McAdams. Polling experts usually caution against taking an internal campaign poll as gospel, as campaigns don’t usually release internal polling that is not good news for their candidate. This is the first poll showing McAdams with a lead.
Love’s campaign disputed the accuracy of the poll, pointing out that the McAdams campaign did not release any methodology for the survey.
“Poll numbers released without any transparency about methods are not credible,” said Scott Riding of Y2 Analytics, Love’s polling firm.
FiveThirtyEight.com usually weights polls from the Mellman Group, a Democratic pollster, by adding four points toward the Republican in the race.
Earlier this week the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC closely tied to House Speaker Paul Ryan, dropped $1 million in advertising into the race to support Love.
It’s obvious that Love is severely underperforming in the district. FiveThirtyEight.com rates UT-4 as a +20 Republican advantage. But, Love is still favored in their forecast. Following release of the poll, Love was given a 5 in 8 chance of winning the seat, while McAdams was given a 3 in 8 chance.
The Cook Political Report changed their rating of the race to “toss up” earlier this month.
McAdams and Love will meet for their one and only debate on Monday.
