Podcast: Forecasting the 2018 election with Noah Rudnick

Election forecaster Noah Rudnick joins us to talk about what data models can tell us about the 2018 midterm elections.

Even though most of the forecasts suggest Democrats are well positioned to win control of the House in November, Rudnick warns that gerrymandering could blunt any expected blue wave. He also says the forecasts could be slightly off in very close races, which could mean Republicans keep control despite the odds being against them.

Looking at the close race in Utah’s 4th District between Republican Mia Love and Democrat Ben McAdams, Rudnick says undecided voters usually break against the party that holds the White House, which could give McAdams the edge.

Noah Rudnick works as a data and polling analyst at Phoenix-based polling company OH Predictive Insights. He has a predictive model for the 2018 House elections in the midterms and contributes to Decision Desk HQ and University of Virginia’s Center for Politics with analysis and House seat breakdowns. You can follow him on Twitter @rudnicknoah and check out his writing.