Republican, conservative, Mormon men are pretty happy about the way things are going in the United States and in Utah, a new UtahPolicy.com poll shows.
Everyone else, not so much.
In fact, most women in Utah are not happy at all – at least not with politics on the national level, the survey by Dan Jones & Associates finds.
Oh, and young adults, those aged 18 to 24? They are really not pleased with things both in the U.S. and in the state.
This latest data is just one more indicator that in the 4th District U.S. House race between Republican Rep. Mia Love and Democrat Ben McAdams, if Republican men stay home Nov. 6 in any kind of numbers, Love is in real trouble.
The good news for Love is that older Republican white Mormon men usually vote.
And so it will be up to McAdams to turn out the “others” if he is to win.
Jones asked 809 adults if the United State, and if Utah, are going in the right or wrong direction.
The question is a standard one for pollsters, meant to show the basic feelings of voters – are they happy and kind of satisfied with the status quo. Or are they unhappy and looking for change.
Some of Jones numbers:
Overall, Utahns believe the U.S. is going in the WRONG direction, 51-41 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
The same folks believe Utah as a state, however, is going in the RIGHT direction, 62-30 percent, with, again, 8 percent undecided.
We don’t have a governor’s race this year, so the latter is good news for legislators (most of them Republican Mormons), who may not be known to voters, but who will still get their votes because voters like how things are going in Utah.
There is a huge difference between men and women on their feelings about how the United States is going:
Among men, 54-41 percent feel the U.S. is going in the RIGHT direction.
But women feel just the opposite: 61-29 percent say the country – led by GOP President Donald Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress – is going in the WRONG direction.
That is a very high 40-percentage point swing between the sexes.
In short, most Utah women don’t like either Trump, his policies/personality, or what the GOP Congress is doing.
Women are more unsatisfied than men about how Utah is doing, also. But women still say, by 57-32 percent, that the state is going in the right direction.
Men say Utah is going the right way, 68-28 percent.
Since Republicans are in control of the federal and state government, one would imagine they believe both the U.S. and Utah are going in the right direction.
And Republicans do; for the U.S., 65-26 percent, for Utah, 83-11 percent.
Still, a quarter of Utah Republicans think the U.S. is going in the wrong direction. That’s significant.
Of course, Democrats are in no doubt in both areas: The U.S. is going in the wrong direction, 93-5 percent; Utah the wrong way, 73-21 percent.
Political independents are split: U.S. going the wrong way, 65-26 percent; Utah going the right way, 54-33 percent.
In general, those who said they are “very” or “somewhat” conservative believe the U.S. is going in the right direction by healthy majorities.
But Jones finds that 35 percent of those who said they are “somewhat conservative” say the U.S. is going in the wrong direction. That’s a third of that group not likely what’s happening in D.C.
Moderates are split – Utah going in the right direction, the U.S. the wrong way.
And those who said they are “somewhat” or “very” liberal say the U.S. and Utah basically suck – huge majorities say both are going in the wrong direction.
“Very active” Mormons – those who pay tithing and hold temple recommends – barely like what’s happening in the U.S.: 52 percent say the country is going in the right direction, 39 percent say the wrong way, with 9 percent don’t know.
All other religious groups believe the country is going in the wrong direction – with variations of majorities.
Those who have no religion say the U.S. is going in the wrong direction, 81-12 percent.
Jones finds that Utah Mormons – those who are “very active,” “somewhat active,” and who used to be active, but who have left the faith, all believe Utah is going in the right direction – with various majorities.
They are joined by Protestants, who say Utah is going the right way, 58-36 percent.
But all other religions say Utah is going the wrong direction, and those with no religion say Utah is headed the wrong way, 67-26 percent.
Some of this dissatisfaction among the non-Mormon ranks may fall to leaders of the LDS Church being very focal this year in opposing Prop 2 – the medical marijuana ballot initiative.
It would make sense that non-Mormons would not like the state’s major religion becoming so active in opposing a political issue before voters. And respond accordingly.
Finally, in the tightly contested 4th District (a recent Hinckley Institute of Politics poll has the Love/McAdams race tied at 46 percent each):
60 percent say the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, only 34 percent say the country is going the right way.
Those same 4th district voters, 58-32 percent, say the state is headed in the right direction.
Jones polled 809 adult voters from Aug. 22-31, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent.