The U.S. Supreme Court could, on Thursday morning, change politics in America forever.
That’s when the high court’s opinion on two gerrymandering cases should be released.
Back when Justice Anthony Kennedy was still on the court, many observers believed the court would outlaw, in a 5-4 vote, the process of state legislatures redrawing congressional and legislative districts with partisan intent — a process called gerrymandering.
But the high court punted that case last year back to a local court on a technicality.
Now the high court, with conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh replacing Kennedy, is expected to rule in two cases – one from North Carolina where Democrats say the GOP-controlled Legislature drew crazy districts in 13 U.S. House seats, unfairly harming Democratic voters; and in Maryland, Republicans sued the Democratic-controlled Legislature over one U.S. House seat that, also, has crazy lines, claiming unfair gerrymandering that harms GOP voters.
Last November Utahns barely passed Prop. 4 (50.34 percent to 49.66 percent), the Better Boundaries citizen initiative petition that sets up an independent redistricting commission, and, among other things, would not allow the Utah Legislature to take into account partisan voting patterns in setting up U.S. House, legislative and (perhaps) state school board districts, if the board holds partisan elections.
A UtahPolicy.com poll by Dan Jones & Associates found last February that by far most Utahns don’t want the Legislature to change Prop. 4.
Fifty-five percent don’t want lawmakers to change Prop. 4; only 34 percent want Prop. 4 changed. The rest were undecided, found Dan Jones & Associates.
But if the high court rules against partisan gerrymandering Thursday – and it very well could – then Utah GOP lawmakers may be emboldened to mess with Prop. 4 in the 2020 Legislature.
The Legislature will redraw U.S. House and legislative boundaries in 2021, using population data created by the 2020 U.S. Census.
The Utah Constitution gives redistricting responsibilities to the Legislature. So Prop. 4 can’t, and didn’t, take those ultimate responsibilities away from legislators.
However, Prop. 4 is so tightly written that it would be tough politically for the Republican-controlled Legislature to adopt a partisan redistricting plan over the top of the independent redistricting commission’s nonpartisan recommendations.
More likely – if the Supreme Court doesn’t outlaw partisan gerrymandering – the Utah Legislature will in the 2020 general session amend Prop. 4 in some manner to give lawmakers the final redistricting ability without much interference from the courts or the redistricting commission.
It is unlikely GOP lawmakers and Republican Gov. Gary Herbert would repeal Prop. 4 outright.
Instead, they could “gut” Prop. 4’s strict limits on citizens’ court appeals on the redistricting commission’s recommendations.
Or the Republicans could make the independent commission’s actions a nonbinding recommendation – with no more power than anyone else’s redistricting proposals.
And then in 2021 lawmakers and Herbert’s successor (he’s not running again in 2020), most likely a Republican, also, could adopt a partisan redistricting plan put forward by the GOP legislative majority – just how Utah has operated for generations.
In fairness, the 2011 partisan legislative redistricting plan the Republicans put forward was accepted by a number of the Democratic representatives and senators, mainly because the plan protected most of the Democrat’s seats – putting them in Democrat areas.
But legislative Democrats and other good-government advocates severely criticized the Republicans’ redrawing of the four Utah U.S. House seats.
By design, the Republicans made then-Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson’s 2nd District much more Republican.
Matheson jumped districts, running in the new 4th District in 2012 – barely winning that race.
Matheson retired in 2014 rather than face another bruising campaign in a district he may not have won.
And Republicans held the seat until the 2018 elections, when Democratic Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams beat Rep. Mia Love, R-Utah, in a very tight race.
Utah will likely not get a 5th U.S. House seat in the 2020 Census – we’ve grown in population, but not that much.
But it is also likely – if the high court keeps partisan gerrymandering and if Prop. 4 is “gutted” by the Legislature – that come 2021 Republican lawmakers will again redraw the four U.S. House seats in a manner harming Utah Democrats.
(Just one example: Salt Lake City is very Democratic, but the GOP Legislature has split up the city’s liberal voters and placed them in a Republican-controlled district(s) for years.)
Better Boundaries has started an online petition in an attempt to stop the Republicans from harming Prop. 4.
But GOP lawmakers drastically changed the medical marijuana and Medicaid expansion laws also passed by petition last November – in essence ignoring the majority of Utah voters’ wishes.
And nothing is closer to the political hearts of legislators than what their own districts look like – exclusive control over which they have in a non-Prop. 4 world.
So they likely won’t fear Utah voters over Prop. 4 changes, if given a chance to do so next general session.
