Gallup says low Congressional approval usually translates into greater turnover in the House. In 2010, 15% of Congressional incumbents lost their seats when approval stood at just 21%. In 2002, only 4% of Congressional incumbents fell. That year Congress’ approval rating was 50%.
Recently, Gallup found 50% of voters saying their own member of Congress deserves re-election, and 22% saying most members deserve re-election, both among the lowest Gallup has measured. Some members have chosen to retire from Congress rather than seek another term, and others are leaving to run for other offices, which means there will already be a significant change in membership in the next Congress regardless of what voters do in the fall. But voters may be poised to send even more incumbents home.