Our Pre-Election Polls Were Mostly On the Money

As we take a critical look at what happened in the 2014 election, we find that the pre-election polls conducted for UtahPolicy.com were mostly right on the money.

Take for instance what happened in the hotly contested race in Utah's 4th Congressional District.


The poll conducted just prior to the election found a gap of 4.87% between the two candidates. On Tuesday night, Love bested Owens by 3.29%. That's well within the margin of error of 4.89%.

In the Attorney General race between Sean Reyes and Charles Stormont, our pre-election poll was off by about 5.5% for each candidate, which is above the margin of error of 3.41%. However, the poll pegged the number of undecided voters at 12.72%, which almost covers the gap for each major party candidate.

In the 1st Congressional District, our results were with or extremely close to the margin of error in our poll of 6.91%.


In the race between Rep. Chris Stewart and Luz Robles, it looks like the 8.7% of undecided voters in our poll mostly broke towards the Democrat, as the predicted vote percentage for Robles was beyond the 6.81% margin of error.


Our pre-election poll in Utah's 3rd Congressional District predicted a 51-point margin of victory for Rep. Jason Chaffetz over Democrat Brian Wonnacott. The actual results was a 49.72% win for Chaffetz.

The Salt Lake County District Attorney race was much closer than our pre-election poll suggested, suggesting the 7% of undecided voters mostly broke towards Republican Steve Nelson in the final days of the race.