Poll Shows Love Could be Vulnerable in 2016

Freshman U.S. Rep. Mia Love, R-Utah, could be vulnerable in her first re-election next year, a new UtahPolicy poll shows.

It would take a Democrat who is well known and has a lot of personal money, however, to mount a credible challenge to the first African-American female Republican member of the U.S. House.

Meanwhile, veteran conservative Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, looks good for another term in Congress come 2016, the survey by Dan Jones & Associates shows.

Jones asked what is known as a “naked re-elect” on both U.S. representatives.

The question put to registered voters in their 4th and 3rd Congressional districts, respectively, is: Should (the U.S. Rep’s name) be re-elected, or is it time to give someone new a chance to serve?

No named opponent is matched against them in this question, although a previous UtahPolicy poll on Love did match her against possible Democratic opponents.

Jones, who has polled for more than 40 years in Utah, says an incumbent officeholder wants to get above 50 percent in a “naked re-elect.”

Chaffetz gets that.

Fifty-three percent of his registered voters told Jones Chaffetz should get re-elected, 35 percent said it’s time to let someone else serve, and 7 percent didn’t know.


But Love falls short.

Only 47 percent of her 4th District registered voters said she should be re-elected, 46 percent said don’t re-elect her and 7 percent didn’t know.


Now, there are more Republicans in the 4th District than there are Democrats.

But there is also a large percentage of politically independent voters in the district.

And Jones finds that 57 percent of independent voters say don’t re-elect Love. Only 35 percent of independents say re-elect Love; 7 percent don’t know.

Those are not good numbers for her among political independents – for she needs a healthy chunk of independents to hold her seat.

Love should not be concerned about a challenge from her own Republican Party, Jones finds.

Jones sees that 74 percent of 4th District Republicans say she should be re-elected. Only 16 percent of her own party say it is time for someone new to serve. And 10 percent of her Republicans don’t know about Love.

Ninety percent of her Democratic constituents say Love should not be re-elected, 8 percent say she should be re-elected and 3 percent of Democrats don’t know.

Love doesn’t need any Democratic votes to win, which is good for her because Jones finds not many will be voting for her.

But with Love’s 47-46 percent naked re-elect among all 4th District voters, there is an opening for some Democrat to challenge her, the latest poll shows.