Utah Policy/KSL Insider Survey: Will Chaffetz Win the Race for Speaker?

Rep. Jason Chaffetz has launched an admittedly longshot bid to replace John Boehner as Speaker of the House. Our "Political Insiders" think Chaffetz has two chances to win – slim and none.

More than 3/4 of our "Insiders" think Chaffetz will lose while less than 1/5 say he will end up at the head of the House of Representatives.

Chaffetz entered the race saying the presumed frontrunner, California Republican Kevin McCarthy, could not secure the 218 votes needed to win the Speakership. McCarthy dropped out of the race unexpectedly last week. 

Chaffetz admits he will probably lose the election, and says he will drop out if Wisconsin Republican Paul Ryan can be persuaded to enter the race.


Selected anonymous comments:

"He has no realistic chance, but he has a lot of chutzpah and with McCarthy getting out he probably helped himself. He is better than almost any politician in getting press attention and that is his number one goal and qualification."

"Are we looking for a Speaker that can't work with both political parties? Still, it would be interesting to have two Utahns so close to the Presidency."
"He has as much chance of winning as a snowball in hell from melting."
"Nothing like putting your name out there win or lose."
"He will not only lose but probably be a spoiler in trying to pull the Republican caucus together. Let's draft Boehner to stay."
"Everybody loves the movie Rudy, but in real life it was the last three plays in garbage time of a 24-3 victory over Georgia Tech. Chaffetz is no Rudy. If he wins, it's because (in Game of Thrones terms) he's the poor man's Tommen."
"I think this is less about Chaffetz thinking he will become the compromise candidate or the voice of the conservative wing of the House and more about his decision to run for the Senate."
"He knows that he has no chance to win but is using this as a means to promote himself and his personal agenda."
"He actually has a chance to win, just because of his different approach to the politics of DC, but in the end the decision will be made by the older, established members of the House."
"Chaffetz will lose because the establishment does not want to get anything accomplished. The old establishment like Orrin Hatch has a vested interest in making sure that nothing ever gets accomplished and rewarding friends."
"Please God NO!"
"It'd be nice to see him serve his district, not his ego."
"Like so many races, Chaffetz knows he's not going to win on the first try."
"I don't think he can get the votes needed to win but more importantly is that he is positioning himself to be there someday."
"It's almost impossible to predict the actual outcome. Chaffetz is charismatic, and may eventually become Speaker. However, it feels like he's still a touch early."
"Not enough votes for Chaffetz to win. Maybe enough for him to be a spoiler and some 3rd party to win. His Planned Parenthood behavior was a disgrace; it will make the House look bad if he does become Speaker."
"He won't get more than 30 votes. He thinks he is setting himself up for future leadership, but long memories in the House will ultimately work against him on this power play."
"It's an opportunity, and you should open the door when it knocks."
"Jason will certainly be a 'fresh face' compared to the stodgy leadership that has been in the House. Can he help the dysfunction? I don't know. U.S. Congress is about as dysfunctional as Warren Jeff's family (ugh!)"
"He might not win, but those saying he's a long shot' should remember he was also a long shot to win his seat. He's also more of a natural politician than he is a natural conservative. That should not be forgotten."