Poll: Who Will Win the White House in 2016?

WhitehouseUtah Democrats think Hillary Clinton will win the presidency in 2016, a new UtahPolicy poll shows.

But Republicans and political independents basically don’t have any idea who will win, the new Dan Jones & Associates survey finds.

Any number of Jones’ poll for UPD have shown over the last year that non-Democratic Utahns just don’t like Clinton.

Especially GOP Utahns just don’t think much of the former First Lady, U.S. senator and Secretary of State.

In his newest poll, Jones asked who Utahns think will win the presidency next year – and then included all the GOP and Democratic announced candidates in the list of possible winners.


Sixty-two percent of Democrats think Clinton will win.

But Republicans and political independents don’t have a clue.

In fact, the “don’t knows” have a plurality.

Among Republicans:

  • 16 percent say Ben Carson.
  • 13 percent say Donald Trump.
  • 9 percent say Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
  • 4 percent say Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
  • 4 percent said former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

But 36 percent of Utah Republicans say they don’t even have a guess who will win next year.

Hey, even 14 percent of Republicans say Clinton will win. Not a very optimistic bunch there – or maybe it’s a reflection of how little they think of the GOP presidential field.

Utah Democrats are feeling good about Clinton – 62 percent say she will win the top office.

After her, 8 percent said Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders will win.

All GOP candidates fall into the single digits, or are at 0 percent by the Democrats.

Twenty-four percent of Utah Democrats don’t even have a guess who will win next year, Jones finds – no doubt being Democrats who don’t think Clinton can carry the nation.

Political independents are on Clinton’s side – kind of.

Thirty-six percent say Clinton will win.

Thirty percent don’t know who will win.

Seven percent say Carson, 6 percent say Trump, 8 percent say Sanders (he seems to have a small, die-hard support group here), and all the rest fall into the low single digits.

Utah Republicans and independents are clearly still looking for a candidate – unlike four years ago when this state was solidly behind adopted son Mitt Romney – who you may recall also struggled in the early race.

Only 30 percent of Utah Republicans support Carson today.

Only 9 percent like Trump, who is still doing well in polls nationally.

Will Utahns in 2016 actually have a say in who the GOP nominee is?

Various Utah Republican leaders – from former Gov. Mike Leavitt who attempted to have a meaningful Western States Primary, to GOP state chairman James Evans, who leads the March 22 Utah Republican caucus next year with hopes of some kind of impact – have argued too few small states, like Iowa and New Hampshire, have to much influence.

Even though Utah is a very Republican state, we have not had any meaningful say in the GOP presidential nomination in decades.

Carson and Trump are not gelling in Utah currently.

Within the next three or four months the Republican race in the Beehive State may see some solidification, however.