UtahPolicy.com decided to take a little different approach with our latest survey about the 2016 presidential race. Instead of asking who survey respondents would vote for, we asked them who they thought would be the eventual nominees for each party and the winner of the White House come November.
On the Republican side, nearly 40% of Utahns think Donald Trump will be the eventual nominee for the Republican Party. When we asked who Utahns would vote for, just 13% picked Trump, behind Cruz (18%) and Rubio (17%). So, while Utahns don’t support Trump, they are mostly resigned to the reality that he may be the eventual Republican nominee. 19% of Utahns said they thought Ted Cruz would win the GOP nomination, and 10% said Rubio. Nearly a quarter (24%) said they didn’t know.
Here’s where you can really tell Utahns don’t like Hillary Clinton. When we asked who they would pick for the Democratic nomination, 41% said Bernie Sanders and 19% said Clinton. But, when we asked who they thought was more likely to win the Democratic nomination, those numbers flipped. 51% of Utahns say Clinton is the most likely winner of the Democratic contest while 32% pick Sanders.
The poll was taken after Sanders and Trump won in New Hampshire, but before Clinton’s victories in Nevada and South Carolina. Trump also won both Nevada and South Carolina. During that time period, Jeb Bush dropped out of the race.
During the “Super Tuesday” primary, there are 1,034 Democratic delegates and 595 Republican delegates up for grabs. Clinton and Trump lead the polls in most of the states set to cast ballots on Tuesday, which could go a long way toward cementing their status as their party’s front-runners.
We also asked who among the remaining candidates was most likely to win the White House in November.
Hillary Clinton came out on top with 24% Trump was next at 17%. Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders was at 11%. Marco Rubio only managed 6% support.
Even Utah Republicans, who pick Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz ahead of Trump think Trump is the likely nominee. 38% of Utah Republicans say Trump will win the nomination while 23% pick Cruz.
Democrats in Utah are solidly behind the idea that Hillary Clinton will be their party’s nominee. 69% of Democrats say Clinton will win while just 1/4 say Sanders is going to be the nominee.
Independent voters in Utah think Trump will be the GOP nominee (44%), and Clinton will win the Democratic contest (49%). That group favors either Democratic candidate to win in November, with 25% saying Clinton will become the next president while 15% pick Sanders. 12% of independents think Trump will win the White House.
Our survey was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates from February 10-15, 2016 among 625 adult Utahns. Respondents were contacted by live telephone calls (both landline and cell phone) and an online panel. It has a margin of error of +/-3.92%.