No Matter Who Wins the GOP Nomination, Republicans are a Long Shot to Win the White House in 2016

White HouseEven if the GOP is able to stop Donald Trump from winning their nomination this year, Republicans are going to have a very difficult time winning the White House this year.


Because Democrats basically start the 2016 campaign with 242 electoral votes in hand, while Republicans begin with just 102. It takes 270 electoral votes to win. Check out this chart from the Cook Political Report:

The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza breaks down the daunting math for Republicans.

If Hillary Clinton wins the 19 states that every Democratic presidential nominee has won since 1992 and Florida, she is president. Simple as that. Or if she wins the 19 states and takes Ohio, New Mexico and Nevada, she’s president. Or if she wins the 19 plus Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio.  You get the idea. There are LOTS of plausible paths to 270 electoral votes for the Democratic nominee.


Now, let’s do the same for Republicans. Give Donald Trump the 13 states that every GOP nominee since 1992 has won (not a total sure thing for Trump, by the way). And, give him the five states the Republican nominee has claimed in five of the last six elections. And the seven states that have voted for the Republican nominee four times since 1992. Add them all up and you get 219 electoral votes. That means Trump or Ted Cruz or whoever needs 51 more electoral votes to win. Give Trump Colorado, Florida and Nevada — three  of the four swingiest states over the past six presidential races — and he still only gets to 263 electoral votes.