For most Utahns, the November presidential election will come down to the lesser of two evils as both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are off-putting to voters.
A new UtahPolicy.com survey conducted by Dan Jones & Associates finds more than half of Utahns would not vote for Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee while more than 40% of Utahns say they would not vote for Trump as the Republican standard bearer.
When asked if Utahns would vote for Hillary Clinton if she is the Democratic nominee, 59% said “definitely not,” while another 8% said, “probably not.” 19% replied they “definitely’ would vote for her while another 10% stated they would “probably” vote for her.
On the Republican side, Trump is a little less toxic than Clinton. Only 42% said they would “definitely not” vote for him while another 10% would “probably not” cast a ballot for Trump. Trump’s support is a little stronger than Clinton, with 25% saying they would “definitely” vote for him while 18% would “probably” vote for him.
Utah Democrats have been hoping (dreaming?) that Trump at the top of the ticket would be so toxic to Utah voters that he would push them to consider Democrats instead. It appears that wish may not come to fruition as Clinton is much more noxious to Utah voters than Trump. Remember, Bill Clinton finished third in the 1992 presidential race in Utah behind George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot. Clearly, time has not rehabilitated the Clinton name in Utah.
Clinton is equally unliked by both men and women, as 68% of women and 67% of men say they would not vote for her as the Democratic nominee.
Trump’s candidacy gets more support from men than women. 48% of men say they would be comfortable voting for Trump while only 38% of women agree.
If Trump wins Utah in November, it will largely be because of the support of Republicans who are beginning to line up behind the candidate now that he has seemingly secured the Republican nomination. 59% of GOP voters in Utah say they would vote for Trump while only 6% would vote for Clinton. Conversely, 89% of Republicans would not vote for Clinton while only 35% of Republicans say they would not vote for Clinton.
Independents don’t like either Trump or Clinton, but they dislike Clinton a little less. 63% of independents in Utah tell us they would not vote for Trump while 55% would not vote for Clinton.
Surprisingly, Mormons are much more likely to vote for Trump than Clinton. The LDS Church issued a sharp rebuke to Trump’s call to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. Additionally, Mitt Romney, a Mormon, who won the 2012 GOP nomination, delivered a forceful speech denouncing Trump as a fraud. Despite all that, Trump is finding more support than you might expect among the LDS faithful.
46% of “very active” Mormons would vote for Trump while 48% would not. 82% of this group would not vote for Clinton, including 73% who say they “definitely” would not.
A majority of “somewhat active” Mormons would vote for Trump while 62% say the would not vote for Clinton.
The survey was conducted by Dan Jones & Associates from May 2-10, 2016 among 588 registered Utah voters with a margin of error +/- 4.04%.