Here’s another sign the 4th District race between Republican incumbent Mia Love and Democrat Ben McAdams is tightening up. McAdams has closed the money gap with Love and is ever so slightly ahead of her in campaign cash on hand.
According to Love’s pre-primary disclosure with the FEC, she has raised an eye-popping $2.9 million this election cycle. However, she has spent $2.38 million during the same time, leaving her a little more than $1 million on hand heading into the final five months of the 2018 midterm election season.
According to McAdams’ campaign, he has $1.1 million in his account. Since McAdams did not raise any money for a primary election, his next FEC filing is not due until the July quarterly report next month.
The latest UtahPolicy.com survey of likely voters in Utah’s 4th District gives Love a narrow 4-point lead over McAdams. That 4-point margin is within the poll’s margin of error, meaning the race is essentially a statistical tie.
The Love McAdams race is already shaping up to be one of the most expensive in Utah this election cycle, but it has a long way to go to match Love’s previous Congressional contests. In 2014 Love raised $5.3 million and spent $5.1 million to defeat Democrat Doug Owens. In their 2016 rematch, Love again raised $5.3 million and spent nearly that much to win re-election to a second term. In 2012, Love raised $2.5 million and spent $2.3 million in her unsuccessful bid to defeat Democrat Jim Matheson.
The 4th Congressional District is rated as R+13 by the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index, meaning a Republican candidate should perform 13-points better than the national average. It’s also considered the 91st “most Republican” district in the nation. The Cook Political Report rates the contest between Love and McAdams as “lean Republican.”
