GOP President Donald Trump is not very popular in Utah -- a statistic that is amazing in and of itself.
But among two groups that have traditionally supported Republican presidents in the past -- so-so Republicans and very active Mormons -- Trump’s standing is also problematic, especially among women in both of those groups, an analysis by UtahPolicy.com of recent Y2 Analytics polling finds.
We’ve noted for years that Trump is not well-liked among women in Utah. The recent Y2 poll finds a 16 percentage-point difference between men and women in the president’s job approval across the state, among all voters.
Now, an analysis of Y2’s latest survey of “very active” LDS women finds about the same difference between “very active” LDS men -- again, a 16 percentage-point difference, with the Mormon women disliking Trump more than Mormon men dislike him.
But diving deeper into the overall numbers finds some really bad numbers for the president:
Across the nation, active Mormons are some of the president’s most loyal supporters among the various religious groups.
But in Utah, Y2 finds that half of all “very active” LDS women disapprove of Trump. And a very high 41 percent “strongly” disapprove of the president.
Compare that with only 34 percent of “very active” LDS men disapproving of Trump, and only 27 percent “strongly” disapproving of the president.
Half of all active Mormon women approve of the president, but 65 percent of active LDS men approve of the job Trump is doing as president, Y2 finds -- a much higher approval rating.
This is not good news for any Republican candidate this year who, in November’s general election, is tying himself or herself closely to Trump.
And it is one reason that Y2 finds Trump is only 3 percentage-points ahead of Democrat Joe Biden in Utah among all voters -- a remarkable statistic.
“Strong” Republican women have a better view of Trump -- which would make sense since the president’s approval ratings are highly partisan in Utah: Republicans like him, independents and Democrats don’t.
Utah historically is a safe haven for GOP candidates, especially on the federal and state level.
Out of four U.S. House seats, only one is held by a Democrat -- Rep. Ben McAdams in the 4th District. Both U.S. senators and all statewide elected officials are Republicans, and the 104-member Utah Legislature is heavily Republican.
And among those who told Y2 they are “strong” Republicans, both men and women, by gender, Trump does just fine.
The “strong” GOP men give Trump an 89-10 percent approval rating, while “strong” GOP women give him a 94-5 percent approval rating.
All well and good. Both “strong” Republican men and women are standing by their party president.
But then look at those who told Y2 they are “not very strong” Republicans:
The men in that group give Trump a 64-26 percent approval rating.
However, the “not very strong” GOP women give Trump a 60-40 percent approval rating.
Forty percent of so-so GOP women DISAPPROVE of Trump in Utah, a 14 percentage-point disapproval difference than the same group of men.
Independent “leaning” Republican women approve of Trump, 52-47 percent. Certainly not a strong endorsement.
Independent women, independent “leaning” Democratic women, and Democratic women (“strong” and “not so strong”) really, really dislike Trump.
So, if you are a GOP legislative candidate -- incumbent or not -- in a swing district, say in West Valley City -- you don’t want to be saddling up to the president.
That is really going to cost you voters, especially among so-so GOP women, even very active female Mormons -- two groups that under normal election circumstances you likely would have on your side.
If you need female independent and even a few Democratic women votes -- for get it. You stand with Trump and you are in real trouble among your electorate.
In McAdams’ 4th District, the ultimate GOP candidate -- to be decided among four Republican candidates in the June 30 primary -- had better beware of female voters, too -- even if they are registered Republicans and faithful Mormons.
You can’t take these women for granted.
Across the state, 50 percent of faithful Mormon women don’t like Trump, and 40 percent of so-so GOP women don’t like him either -- the UtahPolicy.com analysis shows.
It is also tradition that when the president comes to Salt Lake City, he meets with the three-member LDS Church First Presidency; they hold a joint photo-op and say nice things about each other.
If that happens before November, half of all the faithful Utah women Mormons watching that event on TV will disapprove of the man standing with her church leaders -- quit an interesting phenomena.
And if Trump comes to Utah before November to campaign -- but skips the First Presidency meeting -- the 4th District GOP nominee may want to call in sick for Trump’s rally, or run the risk of losing any number of female ballots -- even if the women are good Mormons and normally-good-GOP voters.