‘Political Insiders’ say Curtis should prevail in the August GOP primary

Our “Political Insiders” think Provo Mayor John Curtis is the most likely to prevail in the three-way GOP primary in the special election for Congress.

Curtis got on the primary ballot by gathering more than 15,000 signatures, which is more than double required by state law.

Curtis will face former Utah Rep. Chris Herrod, who won the GOP delegate vote in the 3rd CD and political neophyte Tanner Ainge, who also secured a place on the primary ballot by gathering signatures.

The primary election is August 15, with the winner advancing to the November ballot to face Democrat Kathie Allen.


Selected anonymous comments:

It’s pretty simple. Curtis is an absurdly popular two-term mayor of Provo, which is the population center of the district. Herrod is a far-right extremist. Ainge is a trust fund kid. Therefore, Curtis is the most likely to win.

The Caucus/Convention system showed the world once again exactly why it can’t be trusted to give Utah voters the candidates they want and deserve. Chris Herrod? Really? And in the process, they have handed John Curtis a gift-wrapped and clear pathway to the 3rd District Seat. Does anyone really think Herrod is electable? This craziness is exactly why I am so completely disillusioned with what used to be the Grand Old Party. Tweet: The party is bankrupt and brain dead. So sad.

Chris Herrod winning the convention is the perfect reason for Count My Vote.

If Herrod wins, we get Chaffetz 2.0, but with less media savvy. I don’t know if that’s good or bad. Curtis is the test of the theory that regular GOP voters are much more moderate than the delegates.

If the Utah Democrats were half way organized, they would flood the Primary with Curtis supports. But, they are not…so they will not.

When we see Ted Cruz supporting Herrod, this conservative district will never vote for a tax increasing, BRT and Prop 1 supporting liberal mayor. Herrod will squeak this one out.

Money and Name ID….those two things are the key to any race. If you have one, you have a chance. If you have both, you are the favorite. If Danny Ainge invests in his son, he will win this race.

Curtis will do much better in a primary than he did in convention.

The Utah Jazz influencing the outcome of an election? You gotta love it, baby! Sorry Tanner Ainge, but dad’s push for Gordon Hayward spells the end of your short-lived political aspirations.

Curtis has satisfied the single largest bloc of voters in Utah County, residents of Provo. His base there should at least balance the more volatile vote in northern Utah County. Herrod’s strident nativism will not play well in southeast Salt Lake County. Ainge is a wildcard. If he runs as a crazy, he will take votes from Herrod; if not, he might take votes from Curtis. But unless he spends a million dollars, he will not be well-enough known over the next six weeks to get enough votes to make a difference.

Chris Herrod won’t be able to get out of his own way, his now deleted web page, that was restored by a prominent Democrat IT pro @ chrisherrod.net will draw national media attention in a terribly negative way for him.

Herrod is a nut job and all his opponents have to do is stay out of the way. Curtis will be exposed for all his tax increases and hit hard on not being a conservative. Ainge wins.

John Curtis is a rebuke of the tea-party wave, which most Utahns are getting sick of. I think he has the best chance.

Utahns love celebrity politicians.

Despite thousands of Democrats manipulating the system and switching party affiliation, Herrod will win.

If the delegates had selected someone that wasn’t one of the most extreme right-wing candidates in the race they would have substantially increased the odds of a solid Republican winning the primary.

Curtis’ delegate voted for Herrod in the convention because they wanted to face Herrod, not Henderson. It worked, and Curtis will sail through the primary.

God help the Republican Party if Chris Herrod should win because Curtis and Ainge split the majority vote.

Given the options of blank slate Ainge or firebrand Herrod, Curtis wins by default.

I’ll ride with 15,000-plus signatures over some 400 delegates anytime. Curtis is the best choice.

The GOP really bungled this by passing on Henderson. She’s a principled conservative, has a proven track record in the state Senate, but knows how to communicate with the other side. She could’ve been the best one in our delegation. What a loss.

Herrod = everything that is wrong with the caucus-convention system.

Once John Curtis’s Democrat Party leadership and tax and spend policies come to light, and they will, he will drop like a rock and peak at about 37% while Ainge will be lucky to break double digits.

There is no way a signature candidates should win this election. Skipping the delegates or dismissing our caucus/convention is not how we do it here in Utah.

Herrod gets a leg up as the Party’s official nominee. This is an awkward test of SB54 in that that the two signature route nominees split the more moderate vote, which also works in Herrod’s favor.

This is an important test case regarding SB 54, and we’ll find out if, in fact, the general voter in the third district is really more moderate than the convention delegates. Can’t wait to find out! But anything could happen except for the Democrat winning, of course.

The convention Saturday was a death nail to the Caucus/Convention system and highlighted the downfalls supporters of the signature process/direct primary have made. A small group of politically active insiders deciding the most bombastic, loudest voice to represent their party over someone proven like Henderson.

John Curtis will win because he has good name ID and is popular among his base in CD 3.

Herrod will have solid financial support from Tea Party folks in Congress and a hard conservative base of support. Not my guy but don’t underestimate him.

The public will find out soon enough that Chris Herrod is an uncharismatic ideologue who will do nothing in Washington, D.C., to improve our situation, while John Curtis gets things done and will reach across the aisle to solve problems. Curtis wins to once again prove the caucus/convention process is broken.

Someone needs to let Tanner know now is not his time, get him to drop out and ensure a win for Curtis. Tanner cannot play the part of the spoiler. Either that or Curtis needs to let folks know that a vote for Ainge is a vote for Herrod. Imagine if we would have done this the way the Legislature wanted to: Herrod would be THE nominee. Herrod may appeal to 400 delegates on a hot June day, but he does not broadly appeal to the third district, especially with its East Bench makeup. Just saying.