ArchiveEmergency podcast: The CD4 race gets white hot!Bryan Schott·October 30, 2018· Share A new poll released on Monday shows Democrat Ben McAdams has taken a lead over Republican Mia Love for the first time. Election forecaster Noah Rudnick joins us to break down the numbers. He says outside spending from Democratic groups is boosting McAdams’ chances of pulling the massive upset in this district. Rudnick also says Love’s middling favorability ratings could be a hurdle for her in the final days of the campaign, especially with McAdams’ favorables much higher than hers. Rudnick’s latest projection for the race predicts McAdams will win by 2.5-percent. You can follow him on Twitter here.