Race Rating Change: Utah’s 4th Congressional District

It looks like the race in Utah's 4th Congressional District is tightening significantly.

On Monday morning, BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy released a poll showing Democrat Doug Owens with a 3-point lead over Republican Mia Love.

This result is somewhat consistent with independent polling (that we have not yet released) done for UtahPolicy.com by Dan Jones and Associates.

We are not yet ready to declare this race as a toss-up just yet, but there's been enough movement toward the Democratic side for us to move this race from "solid Republican" to "lean Republican."

Our rating scale:

  • "Safe" seats mean there is no challenger from the opposing party.
  • "Solid" means the seat is likely to remain in that party's control.
  • "Lean" means the party should keep control of the seat, but it's in some doubt because of a retirement or strong challenger.
  • "Toss-up" means control of the seat is in doubt.

Previous rating: Solid Republican

New rating: Lean Republican